Accuracy-Fairness Tradeoff in Parole Decision Predictions: A Preliminary Analysis

John W. Gardner, Furkan Gursoy, Ioannis A. Kakadiaris

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Algorithms play an essential and expanding role in public policy decisions, including those in criminal justice. This short paper reports on the first author's summer research project characterizing the tradeoff between accuracy and fairness in parole decision predictions. The dataset employed in this study contains over 30,000 parole decisions made by the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services. Each decision contains information on the subject, such as sex, race/ethnicity, and parole decision, as well as predictive features describing the crime committed by the subject and the parole interview held. Logistic regression, decision tree, support vector machine, and random forest models are trained and utilized to analyze parole decision predictions based on the available features. Most models fail to pass standard fairness tests for most fairness metrics. Moreover, while there may be an overall tradeoff between fairness and accuracy, the obtained differences in accuracy are too small to make a well-supported claim. Future research may enhance the preliminary work introduced in this paper by using multiple real-world datasets to investigate the tradeoff between accuracy and fairness.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2022 IEEE/ACM 9th International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2022
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages284-287
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9781665460903
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022
Event9th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2022 - Vancouver, United States
Duration: Dec 6 2022Dec 9 2022

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2022 IEEE/ACM 9th International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2022

Conference

Conference9th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2022
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityVancouver
Period12/6/2212/9/22

Keywords

  • Accuracy
  • Fairness
  • Machine Learning
  • Parole Decisions
  • Tradeoff

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Information Systems
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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