TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050
T2 - an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
AU - GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators
AU - Nichols, Emma
AU - Steinmetz, Jaimie D.
AU - Vollset, Stein Emil
AU - Fukutaki, Kai
AU - Chalek, Julian
AU - Abd-Allah, Foad
AU - Abdoli, Amir
AU - Abualhasan, Ahmed
AU - Abu-Gharbieh, Eman
AU - Akram, Tayyaba Tayyaba
AU - Al Hamad, Hanadi
AU - Alahdab, Fares
AU - Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
AU - Alipour, Vahid
AU - Almustanyir, Sami
AU - Amu, Hubert
AU - Ansari, Iman
AU - Arabloo, Jalal
AU - Ashraf, Tahira
AU - Astell-Burt, Thomas
AU - Ayano, Getinet
AU - Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L.
AU - Baig, Atif Amin
AU - Barnett, Anthony
AU - Barrow, Amadou
AU - Baune, Bernhard T.
AU - Béjot, Yannick
AU - Mequanint Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M.
AU - Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint
AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
AU - Bhaskar, Sonu
AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika
AU - Bijani, Ali
AU - Biswas, Atanu
AU - Bolla, Srinivasa Rao
AU - Boloor, Archith
AU - Brayne, Carol
AU - Brenner, Hermann
AU - Burkart, Katrin
AU - Burns, Richard A.
AU - Cámera, Luis Alberto
AU - Cao, Chao
AU - Carvalho, Felix
AU - Castro-De-Araujo, Luis F.S.
AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán
AU - Cerin, Ester
AU - Chavan, Prachi P.
AU - Cherbuin, Nicolas
AU - Chu, Dinh Toi
AU - Costa, Vera Marisa
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
PY - 2022/2
Y1 - 2022/2
N2 - Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.
AB - Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.
KW - Blood Glucose
KW - Body Mass Index
KW - Dementia/epidemiology
KW - Educational Status
KW - Global Burden of Disease
KW - Global Health
KW - Humans
KW - Population Dynamics
KW - Risk Factors
KW - Smoking/epidemiology
KW - Sociodemographic Factors
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U2 - 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8
DO - 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 34998485
AN - SCOPUS:85123842750
SN - 2468-2667
VL - 7
SP - e105-e125
JO - The Lancet Public Health
JF - The Lancet Public Health
IS - 2
ER -