Neoatherosclerosis prediction using plaque markers in intravascular optical coherence tomography images

Introduction: In-stent neoatherosclerosis has emerged as a crucial factor in post-stent complications including late in-stent restenosis and very late stent thrombosis. In this study, we investigated the ability of quantitative plaque characteristics from intravascular optical coherence tomography (IVOCT) images taken just prior to stent implantation to predict neoatherosclerosis after implantation. Methods: This was a sub-study of the TRiple Assessment of Neointima Stent FOrmation to Reabsorbable polyMer with Optical Coherence Tomography (TRANSFORM-OCT) trial. Images were obtained before and 18 months after stent implantation. Final analysis included images of 180 lesions from 90 patients; each patient had images of two lesions in different coronary arteries. A total of 17 IVOCT plaque features, including lesion length, lumen (e.g., area and diameter); calcium (e.g., angle and thickness); and fibrous cap (FC) features (e.g., thickness, surface area, and burden), were automatically extracted from the baseline IVOCT images before stenting using dedicated software developed by our group (OCTOPUS). The predictive value of baseline IVOCT plaque features for neoatherosclerosis development after stent implantation was assessed using univariate/multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Results: Follow-up IVOCT identified stents with (n = 19) and without (n = 161) neoatherosclerosis. Greater lesion length and maximum calcium angle and features related to FC were associated with a higher prevalence of neoatherosclerosis after stent implantation (p < 0.05). Hierarchical clustering identified six clusters with the best prediction p-values. In univariate logistic regression analysis, maximum calcium angle, minimum calcium thickness, maximum FC angle, maximum FC area, FC surface area, and FC burden were significant predictors of neoatherosclerosis. Lesion length and features related to the lumen were not significantly different between the two groups. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, only larger FC surface area was strongly associated with neoatherosclerosis (odds ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.80, p < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve was 0.901 (95% CI 0.859–0.946, p < 0.05) for FC surface area. Conclusion: Post-stent neoatherosclerosis can be predicted by quantitative IVOCT imaging of plaque characteristics prior to stent implantation. Our findings highlight the additional clinical benefits of utilizing IVOCT imaging in the catheterization laboratory to inform treatment decision-making and improve outcomes.