Simplified Approach to Predicting Obstructive Coronary Disease With Integration of Coronary Calcium: Development and External Validation

BACKGROUND: The Diamond-Forrester model was used extensively to predict obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) but overestimates probability in current populations. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a useful marker of CAD, which is not routinely integrated with other features. We derived simple likelihood tables, integrating CAC with age, sex, and cardiac chest pain to predict obstructive CAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: The training population included patients from 3 multinational sites (n=2055), with 2 sites for external testing (n=3321). We determined associations between age, sex, cardiac chest pain, and CAC with the presence of obstructive CAD, defined as any stenosis ≥50% on coronary computed tomography angiography. Prediction performance was assessed using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and compared with the CAD Consortium models with and without CAC, which require detailed calculations, and the updated Diamond-Forrester model. In external testing, the proposed likelihood tables had higher AUC (0.875 [95% CI, 0.862–0.889]) than the CAD Consortium clinical+CAC score (AUC, 0.868 [95% CI, 0.855–0.881]; P=0.030) and the updated Diamond-Forrester model (AUC, 0.679 [95% CI, 0.658–0.699]; P<0.001). The calibration for the likelihood tables was better than the CAD Consortium model (Brier score, 0.116 versus 0.121; P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and externally validated simple likelihood tables to integrate CAC with age, sex, and cardiac chest pain, demonstrating improved prediction performance compared with other risk models. Our tool affords physicians with the opportunity to rapidly and easily integrate a small number of important features to estimate a patient’s likelihood of obstructive CAD as an aid to clinical management.