TY - JOUR
T1 - Validating the SMART2 Score in a Racially Diverse High-Risk Nationwide Cohort of Patients Receiving Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting
AU - Deo, Salil V.
AU - Althouse, Andrew
AU - Al-Kindi, Sadeer
AU - McAllister, David A.
AU - Orkaby, Ariela
AU - Elgudin, Yakov E.
AU - Fremes, Stephen
AU - Chu, Danny
AU - Visseren, Frank L.J.
AU - Pell, Jill P.
AU - Sattar, Naveed
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors.
PY - 2023/11/7
Y1 - 2023/11/7
N2 - BACKGROUND: We tested the potential of the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART2) risk score for use in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted an external validation of the SMART2 score in a racially diverse high-risk national cohort (2010–2019) that underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. We calculated the preoperative SMART2 score and modeled the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality+myocardial infarction+stroke) incidence. We evaluated SMART2 score discrimination at 5 years using c-statistic and calibration with observed/expected ratio and calibration plots. We analyzed the potential clinical benefit using decision curves. We repeated these analyses in clinical subgroups, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and polyvascular disease, and separately in White and Black patients. In 27 443 (mean age, 65 years; 10% Black individuals) US veterans undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (2010–2019) nationwide, the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event rate was 25%; 27% patients were in high predicted risk (>30% 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events). SMART2 score discrimination (c-statistic: 64) was comparable to the original study (c-statistic: 67) and was best in patients with chronic kidney disease (c-statistic: 66). However, it underpredicted major adverse cardiovascular event rates in the whole cohort (observed/expected ratio, 1.45) as well as in all studied subgroups. The SMART2 score performed better in White than Black patients. On decision curve analysis, the SMART2 score provides a net benefit over a wide range of risk thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART2 model performs well in a racially diverse coronary artery bypass grafting cohort, with better predictive capabilities at the upper range of baseline risk, and can therefore be used to guide secondary preventive pharmacotherapy.
AB - BACKGROUND: We tested the potential of the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART2) risk score for use in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted an external validation of the SMART2 score in a racially diverse high-risk national cohort (2010–2019) that underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. We calculated the preoperative SMART2 score and modeled the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality+myocardial infarction+stroke) incidence. We evaluated SMART2 score discrimination at 5 years using c-statistic and calibration with observed/expected ratio and calibration plots. We analyzed the potential clinical benefit using decision curves. We repeated these analyses in clinical subgroups, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and polyvascular disease, and separately in White and Black patients. In 27 443 (mean age, 65 years; 10% Black individuals) US veterans undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (2010–2019) nationwide, the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event rate was 25%; 27% patients were in high predicted risk (>30% 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events). SMART2 score discrimination (c-statistic: 64) was comparable to the original study (c-statistic: 67) and was best in patients with chronic kidney disease (c-statistic: 66). However, it underpredicted major adverse cardiovascular event rates in the whole cohort (observed/expected ratio, 1.45) as well as in all studied subgroups. The SMART2 score performed better in White than Black patients. On decision curve analysis, the SMART2 score provides a net benefit over a wide range of risk thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART2 model performs well in a racially diverse coronary artery bypass grafting cohort, with better predictive capabilities at the upper range of baseline risk, and can therefore be used to guide secondary preventive pharmacotherapy.
KW - atherosclerotic vascular disease
KW - coronary artery bypass grafting
KW - coronary artery disease
KW - external validation
KW - myocardial infarction
KW - risk prediction
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U2 - 10.1161/JAHA.123.030757
DO - 10.1161/JAHA.123.030757
M3 - Article
C2 - 37889195
AN - SCOPUS:85176495831
SN - 2047-9980
VL - 12
JO - Journal of the American Heart Association
JF - Journal of the American Heart Association
IS - 21
M1 - e030757
ER -