Reproducibility and prognostic ability of chronicity parameters in kidney biopsy – Comprehensive evaluation comparing microscopy and artificial intelligence in digital pathology

Introduction: Semi-quantitative scoring of various parameters in renal biopsy is accepted as an important tool to assess disease activity and prognostication. There are concerns on the impact of interobserver variability in its prognostic utility, generating a need for computerized quantification. Methods: We studied 94 patients with renal biopsies, 45 with native diseases and 49 transplant patients with index biopsies for Polyomavirus nephropathy. Chronicity scores were evaluated using two methods. A standard definition diagram was agreed after international consultation and four renal pathologists scored each parameter in a double-blinded manner. Interstitial fibrosis (IF) score was assessed with five different computerized and AI-based algorithms on trichrome and PAS stains. Results: There was strong prognostic correlation with renal function and graft outcome at a median follow-up ranging from 24 to 42 months respectively, independent of moderate concordance for pathologists scores. IF scores with two of the computerized algorithms showed significant correlation with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at biopsy but not at the end of follow-up. There was poor concordance for AI based platforms. Conclusion: Chronicity scores are robust prognostic tools despite interobserver reproducibility. AI-algorithms have absolute precision but are limited by significant variation when different hardware and software algorithms are used for quantification.